The dog days of summer are anything but for retailers, who expect families to ring up a strong sales in the weeks leading to the first day of school. The back-to-school season is the second biggest surge in sales for merchants after the holiday season, and this year, they are not conceding ground to inflation fears or competition from artificial intelligence agents and social media platforms.
Retailers have adjusted their strategies; following last year’s strong focus on value, they are balancing price promotions with a spotlight on brands popular with students, to capture the attention of Gen Z and alpha consumers.
“Value is top of mind this season for the vast majority of American households, because issues around affordability are real,” said Marisa Thalberg, executive vice president, chief customer and marketing officer for Catalyst Brands, parent of JCPenney and Aeropostale. “However, I always like to point out that value is not synonymous with ‘cheap,’” she cautioned.
Consumers are expected to remain resilient but careful, “laser-focused on getting the best price,” says Mark Mathews, chief economist and executive director of research at the National Retail Federation. But the annual NRF back-to-school survey forecast found consumers are willing to make sacrifices to spend on their loved ones, says Mathews. Over one-third (37%) said they will cut back other spending and 20% will use buy now-pay later plans.
“A lot of what we’re seeing is consumers shopping around. They’re waiting on the best deals and they’re trying to figure out how their shopping list fits into their budget,” says Allison Zeller, vice president of industry and consumer insights at NRF. “They’re all trying to find ways to get those lists completed, even in regards to assumed higher prices.”
Value matters
Several merchants have made keeping prices at last year’s levels part of their pitch to consumers. For example, discounter Dollar General is promoting how the back-to-school section of its website is offering all items at last year’s prices.
“We know the back to school season is one of the most important moments of the year for families and teachers, and this year, value matters more than ever,” said Marshall Warkentin, president of U.S. retail at Staples. The office-supplies retailer brought back its 1996-vintage “Most Wonderful Time Of The Year” campaign for the occasion and is promoting items priced as low as 25 cents in a bid to bring in cost-conscious parents.
“By holding 2025 prices on key essentials, offering hundreds of items under $10 and bringing back a nostalgic campaign, Staples is helping make the season easier, more affordable and a little more fun,” said Warkentin, in a statement.
Inflation remains a concern for 64% of parents and nearly 69% claim saving money is a top priority, according to the Jones Lang LaSalle 2026 Back-to-School Survey report. The poll found households planned most of their shopping at discounters Wal-Mart, which was cited by 77% of parents, followed by Target with just over 40% and online at Amazon, where almost 39% of parents plan to shop.
Walmart announced it would offer its lowest prices since 2019 on the 14 most popular school supplies from classroom lists nationwide, with some items starting at just 25 cents. The retailer said it will offer shoppers 1,300 more price Rollbacks this back-to school-season, compared to last year.
Target launched a limited-time collaboration with the brand LoveShackFancy, offering clothing for tweens and teens, with most items priced under $25. The retailer is also launching exclusive lines of apparel and other items for back-to-school with brands including Hollister, Owala and Overtime.
“We’ve put together an assortment with more trend-forward style, great design and unrivaled value than ever before,” said Cara Sylvester, Target’s executive vice president and chief merchandising officer, in a statement.
A collaborative effort
A late Labor Day is expected to stretch the back-to-school shopping season, but store traffic is expected to be relatively flat, down about 2%, according to a forecast from Sensormatic Solutions. The retail solutions company is projecting sales will peak on Saturday August 8 in the South and Western U.S., Aug. 15 in the Midwest and Aug. 25 in the Northeast.
“Retailers should approach the season with the understanding that the landscape around them has changed significantly,” said Grant Gustafson, Sensormatic’s head of retail consulting and analytics, in a statement. “Each region’s unique school calendar, the global supply chain, and consumer behavior trends may impact how shoppers show up this year—and each presents an opportunity for retailers to win new customers and build loyalty by fine-tuning product assortments, promotions, and operations that can transform an annual errand into a meaningful, satisfying experience.”
That errand is more complex than before. PwC’s 2026 US Consumer Poll on Back-to-School Shopping found the back-to-school path to purchase journey is fragmented among online marketplaces, brand sites, social media, and artificial intelligence tools.
“Back-to-school shopping has evolved from a routine errand into an increasingly collaborative, digital, and expensive seasonal milestone,” wrote the authors, PwC consumer markets industry leader Ali Furman and global retail leader Kelly Pedersen.
The PwC analysts noted kids are increasingly decision makers, or at least strongly influencing the buying decisions, even as their parents try to hold the line on spending. Children’s preferences are the top factor guiding parent’s decisions, cited by 58%, ahead of the school-provided shopping lists (55%) or sales and promotions (54%).
To drive those decisions, retailers are not giving up on the power of branding in spite of the economic pressures. Kohl’s launched its “We’re so back (to school)” campaign touting an assortment of thousands of items priced below $25 and popular brands like Nike and Levi’s. Clothing retailer PacSun teamed up with the makeup retailer Ulta Beauty to launch co-branded beauty and clothing products on both retailers’ locations. The collab previewed with an activation at PacSun’s Soho store in New York City, focused on its back-to-school “Denim Starts Here” effort.
“We wanted this day to be a true celebration of co-creation, bringing together partners we love to meet young people where they’re already gathering,” said Richard Cox, PacSun’s chief merchandising officer.
“Retailers can no longer count on a linear path to purchase. A child might discover a backpack on social media, a parent might price-check it through an AI assistant, and the final purchase might happen on a marketplace app, all within the same week,” the PwC authors concluded. “Winning the back-to-school season now means showing up consistently as students and parents increasingly make decisions together.”
Collabs with creators and influencers
Social media and creator culture are front and center in many retailers’ campaigns this year.
American Eagle had the lucky timing to have signed up Spanish footballer Yamine Lamal as a brand ambassador in January, before his performance in the FIFA World Cup brought him to the world’s attention. The 19-year-old will join the brand’s other faces in the campaign as the retailer evolves its back to school approach to “unfold over time,” CMO Craig Brommers told Modern Retail.
The chain will keep launching new products, creator collaborations and events past Labor Day to take advantage of consumers’ increasingly shopping later, after school starts.
“Back-to-school is our Super Bowl, but now, it’s less about winning one weekend and more about staying relevant throughout the entire season,” said Brommers.
Cultural relevance is featured prominently among retailers to keep up with the changing habits of young people. The PwC study found in-store shopping intent has dropped slightly, to 70% of parents from 79% last year, while 23% now say they shop social media or influencer recommendations, and the same number shops using AI, a channel that wasn’t even on the radar during last year’s shopping season
Clothing retailer Aeropostale teamed up with 16-year-old influencer Deja Clark to create “The Intern Diaries,” a web series promoting her collaboration on the brand’s back-to-school collection. The apparel line features 71 items priced starting at $19.95. Streetwear retailer Journeys is partnering with rapper DJ Khaled as its chief creative officer for its “Pull Up Fresh” campaign, which features several influencers and creators, while apparel retailer Journeys is partnering with a roster of influencers including Madison Bayley and Anna Cathcart for an effort that includes an expanded social media presence.
JCPenney is balancing both the appeal of influencers and brands. The back-to-school season features brands prominently in its Inside Lane displays. The merchant also partnered with comedian and influencer Zarna Garg for a social media-led effort focused on helping parents get the best value on popular, teen-approved brands.
It is important to combine value, selection and convenience with brands into the store experience, noted Catalyst Brands’ Thalberg. But she also noted that cultural relevance is key.
Thalberg met Garg at a women’s leadership event and signed her up for a Mother’s Day effort which showed her fans and the store audience responded to her humor, so they decided to translate that to back-to-school shopping.
“Social platforms and creators are no longer just influencing back-to-school shopping; they’re shaping it, particularly among Gen Z and Gen Alpha,” said Thalberg. “Of course, this all has a natural confluence with the power of social discovery and social shopping.”
